NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its second-stage long-range monsoon forecast for 2026, delivering a sobering outlook for the upcoming southwest monsoon season (June to September). Driven by transitioning global climate conditions, the updated forecast predicts a significantly dry season with a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall and intensified heatwave conditions across major portions of the country.
Global Climate Drivers: El Niño Transitioning
The overarching factor influencing the 2026 monsoon is a shift in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean:
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El Niño Surge: Currently, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning toward El Niño. Climate models indicate that active El Niño conditions are highly likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season, a phenomenon historically associated with suppressed rainfall in India.
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Neutral IOD: Over the Indian Ocean, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are presently observed and are expected to persist throughout the monsoon season, offering no countervailing moisture buffer against the El Niño impact.
National Seasonal Rainfall Forecast (June–September)
Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is projected to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model margin of error of $\pm 4\%$. The national seasonal LPA stands at 87 cm based on historical data from 1971–2020.
The IMD’s five-category probability breakdown reveals a cumulative 84% probability of a moisture-deficient or below-normal monsoon:
| Rainfall Category | Range (% of LPA) | Forecast Probability (%) | Climatological Probability (%) |
| Deficient | < 90% | 60% | 16% |
| Below Normal | 90% – 95% | 24% | 17% |
| Normal | 96% – 104% | 14% | 33% |
| Above Normal | 105% – 110% | 2% | 16% |
| Excess | > 110% | 0% | 17% |
Data Source: India Meteorological Department (May 2026)
Regional Vulnerabilities and the Monsoon Core Zone
Except for select pockets in Northwest and Northeast India, eastern peninsular India, and isolated areas of East India where normal to above-normal precipitation may occur, below-normal rainfall is predicted over most geographical areas.
The broad homogeneous regions and the critical agricultural belt face the following rainfall probabilities:
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Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ): Comprising India’s primary rainfed agricultural land, the MCZ faces a 43% probability of below-normal rainfall (defined as $<94\%$ of LPA).
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Northwest India: Stands at a 46% probability of below-normal seasonal rainfall.
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South Peninsula: Faces a 45% probability of below-normal seasonal rainfall.
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Central India: Projected at a 43% probability of below-normal seasonal rainfall.
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Northeast India: Shows a slightly more balanced outlook with a 35% probability for normal and 33% for below-normal rainfall.
Outlook for June 2026: Below-Normal Rain and Surging Heatwaves
The onset month of June is expected to mirror the wider seasonal deficit, with average national rainfall highly likely to remain below normal ($<92\%$ of the monthly LPA of 165.4 cm).
Concurrently, the temperature and heatwave outlook presents distinct regional challenges:
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Temperature Spikes: Most parts of India are expected to experience above-normal monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. Only select areas in Central, Northwest, and East India are insulated with a likelihood of normal to below-normal maximums.
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Elevated Heatwave Days: Above-normal heatwave days are anticipated over major states, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh, alongside isolated zones in Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
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Cooler Pockets: Conversely, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are expected to see a below-normal number of heatwave days during the month.
Socio-Economic Impact and Advisory
The combination of deficient initial rainfall and extreme heat poses severe cascading risks to public health, power grid stability, municipal water reserves, and agricultural sowing.
To counter these pressures, the IMD and Ministry guidelines advise state and district administrations to initiate aggressive preparedness responses. Measures include implementing localized agricultural contingency plans, stepping up drought-monitoring systems, ensuring the operational readiness of cooling shelters, and securing drinking water resources. Citizens are urged to maintain proper hydration and limit direct exposure during peak afternoon hours.
